The residual uncertainty is irrelevant to making strategic decisions at level one so managers can develop a single forecast that is a sufficiently precise basis for their strategies. Decision making tools have now moved from answer generators to scenario builders when decisions can rely less on evidence and certainty it is managers that take up the slack and fill the void this book focuses on the challenge of making strategic decisions in conditions of uncertainty. Uncertainty and strategic decision making the complexity of simple rules in strategic decision making toward an understanding of organizational heuristics a test of perceptual accuracy and overconfidence in a strategic issue context. Kristian j sund robert j galavan anne sigismund huff 2016 uncertainty and strategic decision making in kristian j sund robert j galavan anne sigismund huff ed uncertainty and strategic decision making new horizons in managerial and organizational cognition volume emerald group publishing limited ppiii. Abstract strategic uncertainty is the disparity between what one knows and what one needs to know in order to make a responsible decision it permeates defense decision making because of strategic uncertainty planners must maximize the robustness against surprise
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